Quarterly of Applied Mathematics

Quarterly of Applied Mathematics

Online ISSN 1552-4485; Print ISSN 0033-569X



A bistable belief dynamics model for radicalization within sectarian conflict

Authors: Yao-Li Chuang, Maria R. D’Orsogna and Tom Chou
Journal: Quart. Appl. Math.
MSC (2010): Primary 91D10, 34C28, 62H30
Published electronically: August 1, 2016
Full-text PDF

Abstract | References | Similar Articles | Additional Information

Abstract: We introduce a two-variable lattice model to describe conflict within communities. Our model includes polarization and radicalization of individuals, each of which harbors a continuous belief variable and a discrete radicalization level describing their tolerance to others. A novel feature of our work is the incorporation of a bistable radicalization process that models memory-dependent social behavior and that may explain contradicting observations on the role of social segregation in exacerbating or alleviating conflicts. We further include institutional influence, such as through propaganda or education, and examine its effectiveness. In some parameter regimes, we find that institutional influence may suppress radicalization and allow for social conformity and appeasement over time. In other cases, institutional intervention may be counterproductive and exacerbate the spread of radicalization within a non-homogeneous population. In such instances, our analysis implies that social segregation may be a viable option against sectarian conflict.

References [Enhancements On Off] (What's this?)

  • [1] Daron Acemoğlu, Giacomo Como, Fabio Fagnani, and Asuman Ozdaglar, Opinion fluctuations and disagreement in social networks, Math. Oper. Res. 38 (2013), no. 1, 1–27. MR 3029476, 10.1287/moor.1120.0570
  • [2] Daron Acemoglu and Asuman Ozdaglar, Opinion dynamics and learning in social networks, Dyn. Games Appl. 1 (2011), no. 1, 3–49. MR 2800784, 10.1007/s13235-010-0004-1
  • [3] C. Baldasseroni, C. Bordel, C. Antonakos, A. Scholl, K. H. Stone, J. B. Kortright, and F. Hellman, Temperature-driven growth of antiferromagnetic domains in thin-film FeRh, J. Phys.: Condens. Matter 27 (2015), 256001.
  • [4] P. Barron, K. Kaiser, and M. Pradhan, Local conflict in Indonesia: Measuring incidence and identifying patterns, World Bank Policy Research Paper 3384, 2004.
  • [5] R. Bhavnani, K. Donnay, D. Miodownik, M. Mor, and D. Helbing, Group segregation and urban violence, American Journal of Political Science 58 (2014), 226-245.
  • [6] R. M. Bozorth, Ferromagnetism, IEEE press, New York, 1951.
  • [7] A. C. Carpenter, Community resilience to sectarian violence in Baghdad, Springer-Verlag, New York, 2014.
  • [8] T. Chapman and P. G. Roeder, Partition as a solution to wars of nationalism: The importance of institutions, American Political Science Review 101 (2007), 677-691.
  • [9] G. Deffuant, D. Neau, F. Amblard, and G. Weisbuch, Mixing beliefs among interacting agents, Advances in Complex Systems 3 (2000), 87-98.
  • [10] M. H. DeGroot, Reaching a consensus, Journal of the American Statistical Association 69 (1974), 118-121.
  • [11] P. Dixon, Why the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland is not consociational, The Political Quarterly 76 (2005), 357-367.
  • [12] S. Eger, Opinion dynamics under opposition, http://arxiv.org/abs/1306.3134, 2013.
  • [13] K. Felijakowski and R. Kosinski, Bounded confidence model in complex networks, Internat. J. Modern Phys. C 24 (2013), no. 8, 1350049, 12. MR 3081417, 10.1142/S0129183113500496
  • [14] K. Felijakowski and R. Kosinski, Opinion formation and self-organization in a social network in an intelligent agent system, ACTA Physica Polonica B 45 (2014), 2123-2134.
  • [15] N. E. Friedkin, Choice shift and group polarization, American Sociological Review 64 (1999), 856-875.
  • [16] B. Golub and M. O. Jackson, Naïve learning in social networks and the wisdom of crowds, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 2 (2010), 112-149.
  • [17] J. Hagan, J. Kaiser, A. R. Hanson, and D. Rothenberg, Neighborhood sectarian displacement and the battle for Baghdad: A self-fulfilling prophecy of crimes against humanity in Iraq, http://ssrn.com/abstract=2118775, 2013.
  • [18] M. A. Javarone, Social influences in opinion dynamics: The role of conformity, Physica A 414 (2014), 19-30.
  • [19] C. Kaufmann, Possible and impossible solutions to ethnic civil wars, International Security 20 (1996), 136-175.
  • [20] U. Krause, A discrete nonlinear and non-autonomous model of consensus formation, Communications in difference equations (Poznan, 1998) Gordon and Breach, Amsterdam, 2000, pp. 227–236. MR 1792007
  • [21] R. M. Kunovich and R. Hodson, Ethnic diversity, segregation, and inequality: A structural model of ethnic prejudice in Bosnia and Croatia, The Sociological Quarterly 43 (2002), 185-212.
  • [22] W. F. Lawless, S. Rifkin, D. Sofge, S. H. Hobbs, F. Angjellari-Dajci, L. Chaudron, and J. Wood, Conservation of information: Reverse engineering dark social systems, Structure and Dynamics 4 (2010), 1-30.
  • [23] W. F. Lawless, D. A. Sofge, G. K. Venayagamoorthy, R. Hillson, and C. P. Abubucker, A physics of interdependence for human-robot-machine organizations, IEEE International Conference on System of Systems Engineering, 2009, pp. 1-6.
  • [24] M. Lim, R. Metzler, and Y. Bar-Yam, Global pattern formation and ethnic/cultural violence, Science 317 (2007), 1540-1544.
  • [25] R. MacGinty, Ethno-national conflict and hate crime, American Behavioral Scientist 45 (2001), 639-653.
  • [26] A. Mellor, M. Mobilia, and R. K. P. Zia, Characterization of the nonequilibrium steady state of a heterogeneous nonlinear $ q$-voter model with zealotry, Europhysics Letters 113 (2016), 48001.
  • [27] B. O'Leary and J. McGarry, The politics of antagonism, Athlone, London, 1993.
  • [28] J. Rydgren, D. Sofi, and M. Hällsten, Interethnic friendship, trust, and tolerance: Findings from two north Iraqi cities, American Journal of Sociology 118 (2013), 1650-1694.
  • [29] N. Sambanis, Partition as a solution to ethnic conflict: Some new hypotheses, Security Studies 9 (2000), 1-51.
  • [30] S. Schutte and N. B. Weidmann, Diffusion patterns of violence in civil wars, Political Geography 30 (2011), 143-152.
  • [31] C. Thron, J. Salerno, A. Kwiat, P. Dexter, and J. Smith, Modeling South African service protests using the national operational environment model, Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction (S. Yang, A. Greenberg, and M. Endsley, eds.), no. 298-305, Berlin: Springer, 2012.
  • [32] N. B. Weidmann and I. Salehyan, Violence and ethnic segragation: A computational model applied to Baghdad, International Studies Quarterly 57 (2013), 52-64.
  • [33] G. Weisbuch, G. Deffuant, F. Amblard, and J.-P. Nadal, Meet, discuss, and segregate, Complexity 7 (2002), 55-63.
  • [34] E. Yildiz, A. Ozdaglar, D. Acemoglu, A. Saberi, and A. Scaglione, Binary opinion dynamics with stubborn agents, ACM Transations on Economics and Computation 1 (2013), Article 19.

Similar Articles

Retrieve articles in Quarterly of Applied Mathematics with MSC (2010): 91D10, 34C28, 62H30

Retrieve articles in all journals with MSC (2010): 91D10, 34C28, 62H30

Additional Information

Yao-Li Chuang
Affiliation: Department of Mathematics, California State University at Northridge, Northridge, California 91330 — and —Department of Biomathematics, UCLA, Los Angeles, California 90095-1766
Email: yaoli.chuang@csun.edu

Maria R. D’Orsogna
Affiliation: Department of Mathematics, California State University at Northridge, Northridge, California 91330 — and — Department of Biomathematics, UCLA, Los Angeles, California 90095-1766
Email: dorsogna@csun.edu

Tom Chou
Affiliation: Departments of Biomathematics and Mathematics, UCLA, Los Angeles, California 90095-1766
Email: tomchou@ucla.edu

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1090/qam/1446
Received by editor(s): May 2, 2016
Published electronically: August 1, 2016
Additional Notes: This work was made possible by support from grants ARO W1911NF-14-1-0472, ARO MURI W1911NF-11-10332, and NSF DMS-1516675.
Article copyright: © Copyright 2016 Brown University

Brown University The Quarterly of Applied Mathematics
is distributed by the American Mathematical Society
for Brown University
Online ISSN 1552-4485; Print ISSN 0033-569X
© 2016 Brown University
Comments: qam-query@ams.org
AMS Website