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"Forecast: Hazy (with 50% chance of error)," by John Marchese. Discover, June 2001.
The article quotes weather service director Jack Kelly as declaring, "Numerical weather modeling is the most unsung scientific achievement of the 20th century." But although weather forecasts have become more accurate with more data collection and computer modeling, the fact remains that meteorologists are diagnosticians. They must ultimately use their experience and instincts along with what computer models predict. The author explains a discovery made by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in 1961, which inspired a new field of mathematics: chaos theory, in which very small changes in initial conditions can have very large and unexpected results. Richard Anthes, current President of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, believes that more and new technology will overcome chaos in weather modeling. He thinks that the federal government must develop and launch hundreds of new satellites, that a massive increase in data collection is needed, that models need to better translate the fluid motion of the skies, and that more computers and computer power are necessary.
--- Annette Emerson
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