"Market calms beforestorm," by Philip Ball. Nature Science Update, 25 May 2001.
Economic crashes are notoriously difficult to predict. They may be triggeredby small, chance fluctuations that, à la chaos theory, have enormouseffect. This brief article discusses a mathematical model that "can senseimminent instability" in a financial market. The model sometimes enters a"predictable corridor", which permits exceptionally good prediction ofshort-term variations and which often presage crashes.
--- Allyn Jackson