Mathematical Digest
Short Summaries of Articles about Mathematics in the Popular Press"The big catch," by Karen Schmidt. New Scientist, 22 March 2003, pages4447. This article discusses the use of Bayesian statistical methods in the modelingof changes in fish populations. These methods are named after the Englishamateur mathematician Thomas Bayes, who in the mid18th century "came up with amathematical formula for judging the probability of future events based on thepast, and for revising this probability as new information comes in," thearticle says. A fisheries scientist quoted in the article remarks that fishare not very predictable, so "Bayesian analysis helps elucidate theuncertainties."  Allyn Jackson
