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Theory of Probability and Mathematical Statistics

ISSN 1547-7363(online) ISSN 0094-9000(print)

   
 
 

 

A note on last-success-problem


Author: J. M. Grau Ribas
Journal: Theor. Probability and Math. Statist. 103 (2020), 155-165
MSC (2020): Primary 60G40, 62L15, 91A60
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1090/tpms/1139
Published electronically: June 16, 2021
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Abstract: We consider the Last-Success-Problem with $n$ independent Bernoulli random variables with parameters $p_i>0$. We improve the lower bound provided by F.T. Bruss for the probability of winning and provide an alternative proof to the one given in [3] for the lower bound ($1/e$) when $R≔\sum _{i=1}^n (p_i/(1-p_i))\geq 1$. We also consider a modification of the game which consists in not considering it a failure when all the random variables take the value of 0 and the game is repeated as many times as necessary until a “$1$” appears. We prove that the probability of winning in this game when $R\leq 1$ is lower-bounded by $0.5819\ldots =\frac {1}{e-1}$. Finally, we consider the variant in which the player can choose between participating in the game in its standard version or predict that all the random variables will take the value 0.


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Additional Information

J. M. Grau Ribas
Affiliation: Departamento de Matemáticas, Universidad de Oviedo, Avda. Calvo Sotelo s/n, 33007 Oviedo, Spain
Email: grau@uniovi.es

Keywords: Last-Success-Problem, lower bounds, odds-theorem, optimal stopping, optimal threshold
Received by editor(s): June 7, 2020
Published electronically: June 16, 2021
Article copyright: © Copyright 2020 Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv