A place for philosophy? The rise of modeling in statistical science
Author:
Persi Diaconis
Journal:
Quart. Appl. Math. 56 (1998), 797-805
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1090/qam/99606
MathSciNet review:
QAM99606
Full-text PDF Free Access
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Abstract: Large statistical models seem to have reached epidemic proportions. I will document the harm they are currently causing and contrast it with some success stories of smaller modeling efforts. A case study involving a model for flipping coins shows how “adding a few bells and whistles” can lead to nonsense. Finally, an effort to list the “real uses” of models is offered as a start to making sense of current modeling efforts.
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P. Diaconis and D. Freedman, On the consistency of Bayes estimators, Ann. Statist. 14, 1–67 (1986)
P. Diaconis and D. Freedman, On the uniform consistency of Bayes estimates for multinomial probabilities, Ann. Statist. 18, 1317–1327 (1990)
E. Engel, A Road to Randomness in Physical Systems, Springer Lecture Notes in Statistics, No. 71, Springer-Verlag, N.Y., 1992
D. Freedman, Statistical models and shoe leather, in Sociological Methodology (Peter Marsden, eds.), Amer. Sociol. Assoc. Washington, 1991
D. Freedman, From association to causation via regression, Adv. Appl. Math. 18, 59–110 (1997)
D. Freedman, T. Rothenberg, and R. Such, On energy policy models, Jour. Business and Economic Statistics 1, 24–36 (1983)
D. Freedman and K. Wachter, Heterogeneity and census adjustments for the intercensal base, Statist. Sci 9, 476–537 (1994)
D. Freedman and H. Zeisel, From mouse to man: the quantitative assessment of cancer risks, Statist. Sci. 3, 3–56 (1988)
C. F. Gauss, Theory of the Motion of the Heavenly Bodies Moving About the Sun in Conic Sections, Translated by C. H. Davis, Dover, N.Y., 1963
C. F. Gauss, Theory of the combination of observations least subject to errors, translated by G. N. Stewart, SIAM, Philadelphia, 1995
J. Keller, The probability of heads, Amer. Math. Monthly 93, 191–196 (1986)
E. Lehmann, Theory of Point Estimation, Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics, John Wiley and Sons, N.Y., 1983
E. Lehmann, Testing Statistical Hypotheses, second edition, Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics, John Wiley and Sons, N.Y., 1986
E. Lehmann, Model specification: The views of Fisher and Neyman, and later developments, Statistical Science 5, 160–168 (1990)
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Article copyright:
© Copyright 1998
American Mathematical Society