Consistency of the BIC order estimator
Authors:
Imre Csiszár and Paul C. Shields
Journal:
Electron. Res. Announc. Amer. Math. Soc. 5 (1999), 123127
MSC (1991):
Primary 62F12, 62M05; Secondary 62F13, 60J10
Published electronically:
October 19, 1999
MathSciNet review:
1715427
Fulltext PDF Free Access
Abstract 
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Additional Information
Abstract: We announce two results on the problem of estimating the order of a Markov chain from observation of a sample path. First is that the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) leads to an almost surely consistent estimator. Second is that the Bayesian minimum description length estimator, of which the BIC estimator is an approximation, fails to be consistent for the uniformly distributed i.i.d.process. A key tool is a strong ratiotypicality result for empirical block distributions. Complete proofs are given in the authors' article to appear in The Annals of Statistics.
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Additional Information
Imre Csiszár
Affiliation:
A. Rényi Institute of Mathematics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, POB 127, 1364 Budapest, Hungary
Email:
csiszar@mathinst.hu
Paul C. Shields
Affiliation:
Mathematics Department, The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606
Email:
paul.shields@utoledo.edu
DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1090/S1079676299000700
PII:
S 10796762(99)000700
Keywords:
Bayesian information criterion,
order estimation,
ratiotypicality,
Markov chains
Received by editor(s):
February 25, 1999
Published electronically:
October 19, 1999
Additional Notes:
First author supported in part by a joint NSFHungarian Academy grant 92
Second author supported in part by a joint NSFHungarian Academy grant INT9515485
Communicated by:
Yitzhak Katznelson
Article copyright:
© Copyright 1999 American Mathematical Society
